Quantifying population-level health benefits and harms of e-cigarette use in the United States
From the Abstract:
“The model estimated that 2,070 additional current cigarette smoking adults aged 25–69 (95% CI: -42,900 to 46,200) would quit smoking in 2015 and remain continually abstinent from smoking for ≥7 years through the use of e-cigarettes in 2014. The model also estimated 168,000 additional never-cigarette smoking adolescents aged 12–17 and young adults aged 18–29 (95% CI: 114,000 to 229,000), would initiate cigarette smoking in 2015 and eventually become daily cigarette smokers at age 35–39 through the use of e-cigarettes in 2014.”
This is the source of the quote often made that “For every adult smoker who quits smoking with vaping, 80 nonsmoking youth will pick up the habit”
The paper also assumed that those youth would then go on to adopt a cigarette habit.
An 80:1 ratio is not mathematically sustainable given what we know of current adult usage rates.
Soneji SS, Sung H-Y, Primack BA, Pierce JP, Sargent JD
Soneji SS, Sung H-Y, Primack BA, Pierce JP, Sargent JD (2018) Quantifying population-level health benefits and harms of e-cigarette use in the United States. PLoS ONE 13(3): e0193328. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0193328