Quantifying population-level health benefits and harms of e-cigarette use in the United States
From the Abstract:
« The model estimated that 2,070 additional current cigarette smoking adults aged 25–69 (95% CI: -42,900 to 46,200) would quit smoking in 2015 and remain continually abstinent from smoking for ≥7 years through the use of e-cigarettes in 2014. The model also estimated 168,000 additional never-cigarette smoking adolescents aged 12–17 and young adults aged 18–29 (95% CI: 114,000 to 229,000), would initiate cigarette smoking in 2015 and eventually become daily cigarette smokers at age 35–39 through the use of e-cigarettes in 2014. »
This is the source of the quote often made that « For every adult smoker who quits smoking with vaping, 80 nonsmoking youth will pick up the habit »
The paper also assumed that those youth would then go on to adopt a cigarette habit.
An 80:1 ratio is not mathematically sustainable given what we know of current adult usage rates.
Soneji SS, Sung H-Y, Primack BA, Pierce JP, Sargent JD
Soneji SS, Sung H-Y, Primack BA, Pierce JP, Sargent JD (2018) Quantifying population-level health benefits and harms of e-cigarette use in the United States. PLoS ONE 13(3): e0193328. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0193328